How the numbers work
How the numbers work. Bookies % is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker's margin removed. The stats bar is independent of the odds. It starts from Elo ratings (eloratings.net for national teams, clubelo.com for clubs): each team's strength rating, which rises and falls with every result and accounts for the quality of the opponent. The home side gets +100 points, the gap is turned into win, draw and loss chances, and head-to-head (3+ meetings) is blended in at 10%. Where both sides have xG (expected goals: the quality of chances created and allowed, per game, from Sofascore match reports), a Poisson goals model built from it is mixed in at 10% per game covered, up to 50%. Most national teams have only 2–3 games of xG so far, so it's a small part of the mix for now.
Goals lines. Expected goals for each side are worked out from the 1X2 odds (the scoring rates that best explain the bookies' prices), then blended with each team's goals scored and conceded over their last 5 games, or with xG when it's available. Those rates give the chance of each scoreline, which adds up to the over/under and BTTS percentages. The fair price is 1 ÷ probability: a bookie price above it is good value, below it is poor value.
Value is the expected return of the best-priced outcome, using a 50/50 mix of the stats and bookies' probabilities because the market usually knows things a rating doesn't (injuries, rotation): High 15%+, Medium 6–15%, Low otherwise. Risk is how likely the safest call is to lose: Low means 65%+ to land, Medium 45–65%, High under 45%.
When it updates. A full refresh runs every day at 1:52pm Melbourne time (fixtures, odds, results, picks and tips). Team news checks run at 11:52pm and 3:52am, an hour or two before the main European kickoffs, to pick up confirmed lineups, injuries, suspensions and big news; picks and tips that haven't kicked off are adjusted if the news changes them.
No pick has a low chance of losing at a price worth taking. A 75% shot still loses one time in four. Odds come from comparison sites at refresh time and move before kickoff. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Gambling Help Online: 1800 858 858.
How to read the sheet
Form Win Draw Loss No data. Read left to right; the outlined box on the right is the latest match. H2H under the form counts how their recent meetings went, e.g. "BEL won 1 · drew 3 · TUR won 2".
Strength Each team's Elo rating and world rank. Ratings rise and fall with every result and account for opponent quality, so they're a better guide to how good a team is than recent scores. The home side gets +100.
Win % ■ Home team ■ Draw ■ Away team. "Bookies" is the odds turned into a percentage. "Elo" (or "xG" when available) is the stats model built from team ratings and H2H, independent of the odds.
Goals Over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and a safer goals line. Over lines are blue and Under lines are purple. The % is green at 65%+, yellow at 55–65% and grey close to a coin flip.
Results The sheet shows upcoming matches only. Use the arrows or the day pills under the date to jump to another day, including earlier days, with FT scores, the pick marked won or lost, and that day's tips.
Big games ★ A gold star marks a headline match, such as two strong sides meeting or a group decider. The Big games filter shows only these.
Strong favourites The filter lists matches in the chosen time window (Next 24h by default) where one team is 65%+ to win, highest first with win % and price.
Team news Click a match to see its team news in gold: confirmed lineups, injuries, suspensions or major news from the latest check, with the time it was checked.
Badges under each verdict. Value means the stats rate a result higher than the bookies do. Risk is how likely the suggested bet is to lose.